The Formula 1 season kicks off on Mach 12th at the Manana circuit in Bahrain. Routinely slated as toys-for-boys or boring-as-hell (depending on who you speak to), F1 is far from being either of those things, from a betting perspective.
"There are some significant rule changes this season, which will doubtless shift the goalposts a bit."
Indeed, if you are prepared to sit through each event, you can really make your betting pay dividends, as the season progresses.
Ordinarily, I would say the beauty of F1 – punting-wise – is in it’s relative predictability, however, there are some significant rule changes this season, which will doubtless shift the goalposts a bit.
Mind you, it’s equally true to say that where one door closes, another one opens, and there will be opportunities to be exploited, as the season goes on.
This preview will hopefully give you a few pointers to how the season might unfold, and where you might want to have a bet. You’ll find that the racing itself becomes about a squillion percent better viewing material, when you know you’re on the winner.
Happy punting.
Grasshopper
Drivers Championship
Fernando Alonso
Fernando Alonso has already signed for McLaren in 2007. Although such moves are not uncommon in F1, and the Spaniard will be 110% committed to winning races, there is plenty of potential for Renault to perhaps not give him 110% in return, and devote more energy to Fisichella.
Indeed, with Renault continuing to question their own commitment to Formula 1, Alonso may find that the team either lacks the focus necessary to make him World Champion again, or that the focus has shifted somewhat to the other driver.
Either way, he has it all to do to retain his title, and he is a confident lay in the drivers championship at 3.8 favourite.
Recommended bet: LAY Alonso @ 3.8
Juan-Pablo Montoya
Rumours abound that Kimi Raikkonen is being courted by both Ferrari and Toyota for 2007, and the announcement of Alonso’s arrival next season, is yet another distraction for the Finn, who will still be reeling from being unable to win the 2005 Drivers Championship, despite having by far and away the best car under him
"Juan-Pablo Montoya still retains a reckless tag, but proved last season that such an epithet is unjustified."
The betting would tell you that Raikkonen is miles in front of Montoya in terms of ability, and that he only has to put on his helmet to finish in front of the Columbian, however, such a sentiment is misleading, and is far from the truth these days. Juan-Pablo Montoya still retains a ‘reckless’ tag, but proved last season that such an epithet is unjustified.
JPM drove immaculately in the last half-dozen or so races in 2005, after suffering from technical failures (and a bizarre series of domestic ‘accidents’) for most of the first half of last season.
Indeed, Montoya makes plenty of appeal at BetFair’s 13.5 for the drivers championship, now that he has completely familiarised himself with the McLaren set-up, got to grips with all the tracks, and matured (following the birth of his first child). Four times Raikkonen’s price? Not in my book he isn’t.
Recommended bet: BACK Montoya @ 13.5
Rubens Barrichello
After living long (perhaps too long) in the shadow of Michael Schumacher at Ferrari, Rubens Barrichello eventually gave up the struggle for equality half-way through last season, to join Honda for 2006.
‘Rubino’ joins a Honda team on the verge of a break-through into the Formula 1 major league, and anything short of race-wins this season, will be viewed as abject failure by the team owners – and they expect the seriously experienced Barrichello to help deliver them.
Barrichelo’s smooth driving style is not unlike that of Jensen Button, but he has the psychological advantage of race wins under his belt. He is adaptable, consistent and under-rated.
Sporting Odds go 25/1 about the Brazilian to finish in the first three at 1/5 odds (as opposed to only 14/1 about the significantly less proven Button) and he provides a nice bit of cover for the Montoya bet.
Recommended bet: BACK Barrichello each-way @ 25/1
Contructors Championship
Honda now look ready to deliver Grand Prix wins, following good progress again last season (alongside their massive investment over recent years), and with both Button and Barrichello having points to prove (for different reasons), the Japanese outfit have a pairing that is the envy of every team except McLaren.
Rubens Barrichello and Jensen Button are being billed as Formula 1’s dream-team, and it’s not hard to understand why. Both are extremely talented drivers, who bring plenty of experience to the team, and a hunger for Grand Prix victories.
"Rubens Barrichello and Jensen Button are being billed as Formula 1's dream-team and it's not hard to understand why."
The team have put on more than 22,000km in winter testing (some 20% more than any of their competitors), indicating that reliability will be good, and everything points to a very serious challenge for the Contructors title in 2006.
Recommended bet: BACK Honda @ 7.0
Tyre rules
Rule changes for 2006 sees the re-introduction of mid-race tyre changes, which has the potential to radically alter the status quo from last season.
In 2005, McLaren had a significant advantage, as they had the fastest car, the best fuel economy, and most importantly, the durable Michelin trye on their car – a combination that really should have brought them the Constructors Championship.
However, Michelin will quit F1 at the end of this season, and it’s questionable as to whether they will have ploughed much development into producing a new tyre suitable for short race stints. Much more likely they will have re-packaged their 2004 tyre.
The quality of the rubber on an F1 car, is second only in importance to the aerodynamic tailoring on the body-work, and given that Bridgestone previously had an advantage in this area, it’s possible that their runners (Ferrari and Toyota) may have an edge, though it has to be said, both need significantly better aerodynamics compared to last season, if the tyre is to make any real difference.
Engine rules
Changes introduced this season require that racecars use V8 engines, or throttled back V10’s – though the impact of this rule change is likely to be minimal, given that all the principal teams have produced V8’s.
"The only team with significant experience of V8 engines is Williams."
That said, these are new engines, and reliability under race conditions is something that has to be proven – it is not a given. The only team with significant experience of V8 engines is Williams, who are now partnered by Cosworth, following a somewhat acrimonious seperation from BMW.
Although their car last year was pretty dreadful, Williams may yet spring a surprise with their engine. They have also switched to Bridgestone tyres for the coming season, and if they can sort out the myriad problems they had last year with the areo package, and the car almost setting fire to the driver (!), they may score unexpected points.
Sporting Odds are a standout at 66/1 for the Constructors Championship, but do not offer any each-way terms. Regardless, it’s not inconceivable that the Williams will nab a couple of podium finishes throughout the season at big odds (though it has to be said that their driver line-up is not too inspiring).
Qualifying rules
Qualifying now takes on a knock-out format, with the six slowest being eliminated in each seasion, until the top six are left, the scores are wiped, and the fastest man in the final session takes pole.
This has the potential to punish drivers who are sometimes careless e.g. Ralf Schumacher or David Coulthard, or those who take it to the ragged-edge e.g. Montoya or Villeneuve.
Certainly, the new format will make the Pole Position betting much more interesting and competitive than previously, and the tidier drivers such as Button and Heidfeld can be expected to give some of the more fancied drivers, a run for their money (though they will of course need to have a decent car underneath them).
Avoid the early races
The first three races of the 2006 Calendar are in Bahrain, Malaysia and Australia. All three races will likely be run in searing heat, and usually prove a stern test of the new cars.
As a betting medium, they are generally best left alone, and are better used to measure engine reliability, fuel economy, and straight-line speed, with places like Silverstone, Turkey, Italy and China in mind, later in the year.
That said, if the Ferrari performs well in Bahrain, it would be worth taking a look at Schumacher’s pre-race odds for Sepang, as he is second to none around that track.
Stay out late
The longer a car can stay out on the track i.e. the better it’s fuel economy, the more flexible the teams strategy can be, and the better chance they have of winning any given race. Pay particular attention to the last team to pit for fuel in Bahrain, as they are likely to have an advantage in Malaysia, and indeed for the rest of the season
"Pay particular attention to the last team to pit for fuel in Bahrain, as they are likely to have an advantage in Malaysia."
Course & Distance
San Marino
Michael Schumacher is a multiple winner here, and even in a poor Ferrari last season, clawed his way back into the race from miles behind, and only a superb defensive drive by Alonso, prevented the German from winning. A master round this track, and likely to prove very hard to beat if the car is anything like up to scratch.
Monaco
Do not back anyone who is qualified lower than 4 th place – unless a surprise has been sprung in qualifying, and a couple of slower cars feature up front. The only place to overtake in Monte-Carlo is the pitlane, or on the autoroute back to Nice airport.
Silverstone/Monza
Formula 1’s two real speed tracks, and barring accidents, the fastest car in a straight line has a major advantage round these circuits, as evidenced by Montoya winning both races for McLaren last season.
Hungaroring
As a contrast to the above tracks, Hungaroring provides a different test altogether, with mechnical grip being much more important than speed, on this dusty circuit. Keep an eye out for cars which handled well at Barcelona.
Drivers
Jarno Trulli
The new qualifying format will likely suit Jarno Trulli down to the ground. A reknowned expert over one-lap, he has never really looked like fulfilling that potential – despite landing a win at Monaco a couple of years back. It’s to be hoped that Trulli can continue to perform well under the new qualifying format, as there is little to fear in opposing him for the race win, even from Pole position.
Felipe Massa
Massa is essentially no more than a test driver who has found himself a race seat, and will do little more than ride shotgun for Michael Schumacher. Certainly, he has little prospect of getting a race win under his belt, as long as Schumacher is in any sort of contention. Given he will be sitting in a Ferrari, it’s to be hoped that his price is artificially short on Sunday afternoon’s, as he can be opposed with impunity.
Nick Heidfeld
"I personally think that Webber is over-rated himself, and so therefore is Heidfeld."
Heidfeld moved to BMW in the off-season, and is a decent driver. He was probably under-rated when he first appeared in the Sauber team, but after two or three solid if unspectacular years, there is a danger that he might now be over-rated.
A lot of this is down to him regularly out-qualifying alleged wunderkind Mark Webber in the Wiliams last season, though I personally think that Webber is over-rated himself, and so therefore is Heidfeld.
The German could well be paired with the likes of Coulthard in match-bets, and there will hopefully be plenty of opportunities to get him turned over in such events, in a car that might not be all that is expected of it.
Teams
Toyota
For all of Toyota’s budget, their driver line-up looks comparatively weak, with Trulli and Ralf Schumacher filling the race-seats, and there should be little to fear in opposing them – especially if the cars qualify high up the grid.
The 2005 Toyota looked a much better car in qualifying, than it ever did in race conditions, something that can be equally said about their drivers, and they should be taken on when qualifying in the front two or three rows.
BMW Sauber
The noises from BMW-Sauber are not encouraging, and although it makes perfect sense for a new team to ‘aim low’, it’s questionable whether this outfit really qualify as a new team.
Sauber have been in F1 for years, and BMW have long supplied engines for other teams. Perhaps things are not all they could be at the teams Swiss HQ, and though they have a decent driver line-up, they will be unable to make the difference necessary, if the car is not up to scratch.
Again, there may be some early play in taking them on with the Red Bulls in match bets.
BBC
