I met a fascinating fellow the other day. Turns out he's
Martingale's Bookie. Decent chap, not at all how I thought he would be. We had a good chat about Martingale, the poor chap. I must say that it gave me a whole new perspective on that sad situation. Most interesting.
"We all know Martingale of course, completely ruined or at least heading that way. How times have changed since that fateful day when his perfect system was hatched. ."
We all know Martingale of course, completely ruined or at least heading that way. How times have changed since that fateful day when his perfect system was hatched. Of course at that time there was no stopping him. No explanation persuasive enough. It was his idea after all, and even now he is still a stubborn lad.
Granted it was a simple idea. Put a bet on, if it wins, it's profit. One up on the old enemy. If it loses, simply up the stakes. If the next wins the loss is wiped out and there's still enough left over for some profit. Sure, there would be some losing runs.
But every bet comes in sooner or later. The bets would increase in size, but there would always be a profit at the end. What could go wrong? Odds-on bets too, none of these far fetched bets. All very manageable.
And then the bad times came. Remember Martingale complaining during those losing runs. The big bets, my goodness they were big. But of course he's still going, even now. The steady drip-drip of profit, despite the massive outlays. He's completely shot his nerves though, a man to avoid at the best of times.
And what drives this man? Well, he claims to be up on the bookie? What's going on?
Well as you can imagine, that was my first question to his Bookie. Here was a cheerful man, complete opposite to old Martingale. A refreshing, positive outlook on life. And why not? He told me stories of old Martingale. The big bets, the pleading and begging to put his bets on. Some were even bigger than we knew - my goodness, they were massive! But every time, the Bookie took them, and then paid out too. My friends, it is true! Martingale really is up on the Bookie.
So what's happening? Why is Martingale such a miserable figure, and his Bookie the cheerful chappie?
The Bookie explained it this way. Martingale bets larger and larger amounts in the aim of finishing each sequence £1 in profit. It sometimes means he has to find over £10,000, who knows where he gets this, but he does. Could go £20,000, £50,000 even - enormous - and of course as we all know it could get more than that. All to win a pound! Whereas our Bookie, he goes into each sequence wanting to lose a pound. Can you believe that? He actually expects to lose a pound every time old Martingale's luck turns around and he starts a new sequence. Now this was a revelation - our Bookies expects to lose every time he sees old Martingale!
Of course, that wasn't quite the whole story as our Bookie continued. No indeed. There really will be a fateful day when our Bookie says no to old Martingale.
That he's quite happy with what he's got - that will be the ruin of Martingale, even if he doesn't run out of money first. How much? Our Bookie wouldn't say - but the day will come, and he's got absolutely no doubt about it. To make sure that day comes he's even put a sign up showing the maximum bet he'll take. We all agree of course - isn't this what we've been trying to tell old Martingale all the time?
It was then that I had a revelation. Bookie, my friend, you're quite right of course. But you know, we can all turn Bookies these days, with the internet and online betting. Why don't we all play at this game? We can play the Bookie, and go into each sequence expecting to lose. If we win the first bet we keep the profit, but then we allow our victim to double his stake and win it back, with interest!- we try to end each sequence with a small loss, just like you.
I was getting excited now, reminiscent of old Martingale the day he came with his system.
Yes, this could work. It was very simple. We would only ever be playing with money that we had already taken off our victim. Sure, there would be the steady drip-drip of losses, but inevitably there would come a day when our victim was begging to put on a £100,000 to win back the £99,999 he had already given us. That would be enough though for me - I'd send him packing.
And it was an inevitable situation - isn't that we always tell old Martingale?
"Bookie took Martingales bets expecting to lose, and he also expected to win each sequence when the 'accies' treated him like he was Martingale. "
It was the bookies turn to calm me down, straighten me out. It turns out that punters do that already, they do it all the time! In fact, I tend to criticise these mugs more than old Martingale. Yes, it's our 'accie'friends who put a pound on a 100,000-1 tenfold. They expect to lose their pound alright, but one day it'll come in - surely. And on that day, they'll turn around to our Bookie and say - well let's just say they'll take their money and run, sequence over. Bookie's using old Martingale's system all the time. In fact, he encourages all these accies. Doesn't he?
I was thoroughly confused now. Bookie took Martingales bets expecting to lose, and he also expected to win each sequence when the 'accies' treated him like he was Martingale. Tell me Bookie, I pleaded, what on Earth is going on here?
Well it turns out it's all fairly simple in the end. That is if you can put your Mathematical spectacles on and see through all the big numbers.
Why wait to cash in on old Martingale when he gets to £100,000? Lets stop after he has a losing sequence of five - no let's make it two - no, much better, let's stop him after one bet! Yes, let's stop every sequence after one bet.
Ah yes - the revelation, one bet at a time. Of course, to end up regularly in profit in these situations , we need value on our side.
Forget Gamblers Ruin - it's Bookies Ruin too - unless we are betting with the odds on our side. If the odds are with us, we can take on a World full of Martingales and Accies.
Yes, the Bookie is certainly a decent fellow when you get to understand him, but perhaps a little crafty. I can't wait to meet him again.
BBC
