Interview: Zonker part 2 at Punters' Paradise

Punters Paradise

So far zonker we've had an overview of your early years of betting, how you started etc - taking us up to the end of your time in university, but you had yet to go pro, although you were punting very successfully and investing a large amount of time. I'd like to focus on the fine detail - how this time was actually spent etc.

Zonker

Sure

Punters Paradise

Picking up from where we left off, you said you were spending 15-20 hours per week on betting research - how was this broken down?

Zonker

Well at uni during gaps in lectures, I would browse the internet, keep up to date with stuff, read news and generally look at odds. Then on Friday afternoon and evening, I would spend up to 8 hours or more, looking through the fixtures in detail.

Punters Paradise

What sports were you betting on at this stage and more or less how many bets per week?

Zonker

For the past few years, probably 90-95% of my bets are on football, the rest mainly on cricket - probably averaging about 10-12 bets per week. It would have been mainly football at that time too.

Punters Paradise

You say looking through the fixtures in detail - are you 'shortlisting' here or assimilating all the info you have including odds and trying to pick bets?

Zonker

Well the process I was using was pretty much going through each fixture one by one, looking at team news, stats, form and so on, and then making a shortlist after a brief look at the odds. It would probably take 90 minutes to go through all 60 UK fixtures or so. Then after getting this shortlist, I would spend a longer time that evening, looking in details at each one.

Punters Paradise

And how much time actually watching matches?

Zonker

Well I would try to watch where possible, although it was not always easy due to my circumstances - for example, I didn't bet much in-running at this point. I would watch maybe 2-3 live games per week, and highlights, like MOTD, every week. Cricket as well, fitted better, as I could watch it over the summer in more detail.

Punters Paradise

So if we were to look at those 15-20 hours it might break down something like 8 hours detailed study of fixtures, odds and info, 6 hours watching, and maybe 3-6 hours general reading of background info, team news,reports etc.?

Zonker

Well probably more general reading, as I didn't include the watching in the original 15-20. I'd spent an hour or two generally browsing stuff most days,so probably more like 25-30 hours in total if you include the watching.

Punters Paradise

Ok, so revise the 3-6 to maybe 10-12?

Zonker

Probably that's more like it yeah.

Punters Paradise

At this stage were you applying much processing to the information you had (e.g. averaging, trending, power ratings etc) or just taking the published information and making an 'informed call' on it all?

Zonker

To be honest, I have never really put that much value in ratings; I prefer to make the informed call. Obviously, some statistical analysis has to be there, but mostly I was using what knowledge I had to make informed decisions. I usually browse forums and websites to see what others think, but don't let this influence me too much.

Punters Paradise

At this stage, where were you doing most of your betting - bookies or exchanges, or a balance of both?

Zonker

I have always just bet wherever the odds are highest. For me, this is usually regular bookmakers, although I do use exchanges at times. I do not stick religiously to singles, as you will see if you check the detailed help2bet.net results, so bookmakers are a must for multiples.

Punters Paradise

Any trouble then, or now, getting on for the stakes you want to?

Zonker

I certainly have trouble sometimes, yes.

Punters Paradise

And how do you deal with that?

Zonker

Luckily my girlfriend has a different surname and address where her card is registered so that helps sometimes to bet in 2 accounts. But usually, for my bets, one bookmaker doesn't have massive better odds, so taking the second best odds for part of the bet has to be done at times.

Punters Paradise

Do you use any other 'beards' (and I hope your girlfriend doesn't take offence!)?

Zonker

Well my mum also has the odd account, but apart from that, hard to trust anyone else fully with large amounts, so those are the only 2.

Punters Paradise

So - we've got a picture of where you were with your betting at the end of college, about to turn pro. Any changes once you had made that move -anything you did differently?

Zonker

Well initially it was hard to strike the balance between advising too many bets and not enough, or trying to advise too many to my website. I place a fair few last minute bets, and I had to accept that although I made profit from these, I couldn't advise them to other people. In some ways, the website made me consider things more carefully but not a great deal changed.

Punters Paradise

So zonker - could we take an example bet? I'll pick one, and we'll explore the thought process.

Zonker

Sure

Punters Paradise

Blackburn-Fulham this weekend. Where would you start?

Zonker

Well I'd think about the teams, their motivation, how they have done recently and so on. Sometimes, things will stand out when thinking of such things.

Punters Paradise

And in this case - anything that jumps out?

Zonker

On this particular one, its a mid-table match, neither team with a massive amount to play for so nothing particularly jumps out to start with. If one or the other team has either really good/bad home or away form over the season, this might stand out too. Or particularly good recent form, or an injury crisis perhaps. On this occasion, not much stands out on first glance.

Punters Paradise

What about the prices on offer? When do they come into consideration?

Zonker

I'd probably think about it a little more before looking at odds. For example, I'd know that Blackburn don't win too many home games, or haven't in last 3 seasons or so, but then this is balanced by Fulham not being great away traditionally. Then, before looking at any odds, I'd also consider the total goals markets. This is a market where I do quite well, so I would think about which way it would go in relation to over/under 2.5 goals. Then I would take a brief glance at team news, which on this occasion,doesn't stand out as being an advantage to either team. Finally I would try to price the game approximately in my head. Now I'd consider the odds on offer. If the odds are higher than I'd expect for one outcome, it is worth short-listing, to look at in much more detail later. On this occasion, I would slightly favour under 2.5 goals for example, but the odds on this also favour that, so I would rule this out.

Punters Paradise

So would you have a feel for Blackburn to win tomorrow - price wise?

Zonker

Blackburn I would probably price around 2.25 for this, certainly a draw is possible, probably 3.10 for that.

Punters Paradise

So at 2.16 on Betfair, they would just about be a lay? - Or worthy of further study?

Zonker

The lay would be one to consider certainly - first impressions don't make me want to back Fulham. The fact that they played in midweek for example,means Blackburn are likely to be fresher.

Punters Paradise

The 2.25 presumably is your 'gut instinct' price before detailed analysis?

Zonker

Yes indeed, this first look at fixtures, I don't make any definite decisions, just roughly looking at things. I don't spend too long on it, but make a note of those worthy of more consideration. Sometimes, from 60 fixtures, this can lead to 25 on the shortlist, other weeks it can be as low as 4 or 5.

Punters Paradise

That is an impressive first guess I have to say - 2.25 is very close to the trading price - and you can be sure that a lot of analysis has gone into that!

Zonker

Well I have to say that I have been through this process already for this game (laughs) but I can honestly say that I thought the same at the time.

Punters Paradise

Well Zonker, it continues to be a fascinating discussion, but that's probably enough for now. In the next part I'd like to look at the lifestyle and psychology a little bit. Many thanks for now.

Zonker

You're welcome. I look forward to continuing the discussion.

The Paradise Interview: Zonker part 2