The Paradise Interview: Zonker part 3

Punters Paradise

Welcome back Zonker. Last time out we chatted about the mechanics of betting as a pro – how you analysed games and did your research etc. This time I’d like to look at the psychology of such a lifestyle - it's a lonely job compared to working in your average 9-5 employment with people around you. How did you view that going into it?

Zonker

Certainly I probably have less contact with friends than I did at university and school - most of my contact with people is via email, a lot of these people I've not met. The social aspect of working in an office for example, is something that I don't have so much. When I went into it, it wasn't something I considered for long, and I don't have a problem with it now, because the extra freedom to do what I want, when I want, more than makes up for this. Not having to go to university lectures or study for exams felt very good!

Punters Paradise

The freedom is no doubt exhilarating, but many people don't want to be that unconstrained - they like to have structure imposed on them - you have to make your own structure here - how have you found that? Do you set an approximate routine for yourself on an average week for example?

Zonker

Good question. At times, it can lead to lack of motivation, putting things off and so on. Small things like updating website results, links and so on can get put off, but I don't have much of a set routine, other than I have to consider the betting opportunities at various times. Fridays are busy during the football season, with this weekend being the last really busy one.

Punters Paradise

For most people betting is the sideline that gives some emotional release from the day job etc, for you betting IS the day job - do you make an effort to pencil in 'down-time', or just kind of let it happen?

Zonker

I just let it happen where convenient. I am looking forward to a bit of a break over the summer though. I will take a holiday and not think about betting for a few weeks. At times you can get a little mentally fatigued, and it is probably better to take a total break and come back refreshed

Punters Paradise

At this stage you no doubt have a good money management system in place so that individual losses don't kill you off - but psychologically it hurts to lose, especially if you get a run - do you have any mental routines that you use when things go bad for a while? To give an example, when I play poker, I know I can win online at a certain level, but luck means I could lose - and it can be annoying. So sometimes I set myself a limit - if I lose that mount I turn off the computer for the night. I know I'll make it back in time (and more), so I just take a break I'm wondering do you do anything similar in your own betting?

Zonker

You just have to keep the faith. Without being arrogant, I know that I'm going to win long-term, so you try not to get too down about it. It does hurt to lose though if it is a bad run over a few weeks. It's the other people following my advice that I feel bad for, but I get a lot of emails from people thanking me for helping them win. I can't really take a prolonged break, with people paying for membership to my site, and I don't think I'd want to anyway. The summer offers a good chance to relax, so the other 9 months I have to keep busy.

Punters Paradise

Even if taking a prolonged break is not feasible – do you say “If I lose this weekend I'm going to go out and have 20 beers, and not think about any bets till Monday” etc?

Zonker

Obviously if I had a ‘real job’, maybe a break would work, but gambling full-time, after a loss it is better to move on to the next one. I do find it fairly easy to do that. Like I said before, I don't get too excited if I win, or too down if I lose. I can look at each betting opportunity independently. If I've just had a big loss, and another good bet comes along, I wouldn't hesitate to place it but equally, I wouldn't go looking for bets to make up the losses.

Punters Paradise

Moving on a little, but staying with the psychology theme - there is a 'herd effect' in betting where at times the money flows in certain directions, without real justification - how big a part does this psychological aspect play in your betting?

Zonker

I just try to make the decisions to place bets in the same way each time. Once the bets are placed, if you've placed the correct bets, you'll win long-term, so that overrides any such things usually. If you're confident in what you're doing, this overcomes any potential negative psychological factors for me usually.

Punters Paradise

To clarify - for example, a lot of people might back Man U at some particular time because they are getting a lot of coverage etc - you might feel that that this is going to lead to lots of backing of Man U and hence poor prices on them - hence possible value on their opposition.

Zonker

Oh I see, sorry, misunderstood what you meant. Well on cases like that, I never follow the crowd - or indeed at any other time! I do read what other people have to say; I respect certain people's opinions, but never get too influenced by others. If I have a strong opinion on something, I will follow that. Experience has told me that that is the best way to go. Sometimes, it leads me to draw the same conclusions as the crowd, in which case, if the odds are still high enough, I'll follow. But obviously I won't bet on something just because everyone else is on the bandwagon.

Punters Paradise

Apart from knowledge of your sport, what kinds of things do you think are important to have in the armoury of a good bettor?

Zonker

You have to firstly be confident enough to back up your predictions with bets. You can't have a fear of losing, if a good bet is there, you have to place it - and you've got to look at it with a long-term view, don't let short-term losses put you off if you are confident in long-term success.

Equally don't get carried away by success.

Punters Paradise

Understanding 'value', risk, bank roll management, staking strategies etc?

Zonker

Yes, value is the key part of it. Obviously, it is your opinion versus that of the odds compilers, but if you are right more than you are wrong, you'll do well over time.

My bank roll - I never risk too much at once, for example on my site, I recommend a starting bank of 200pts, with a maximum bet of 20pts.

A standard bet is 5pts, and I have only ever advised a 20pt bet twice, once being today.

Punters Paradise

What kind of odds would the 20pt be?

Zonker

Well on this occasion, it is 2/7, I think the previous one was 1/2.

Punters Paradise

And as an estimate - what kind of odds would the average 5pt bet be?

Zonker

The average 5pt one can vary from something down to 1.25, up to 5.00 or higher. A lot of these bets are on doubles and trebles. I am well aware obviously of over-round, and the fact it multiplies on multiple bets, but there is still good cause to place doubles and trebles I think.

Punters Paradise

Varying stakes according to how much value you perceive?

Zonker

Yes, and balancing this with risk. For my own betting, and my website, I try to make steady profit, so losing months are rare. I think my members wouldn't appreciate more variable results, with some months of big profit, and some big losses, so the aim is to build profits steadily. As a result, I would say, most of my bets tend to be on favourites, but obviously this is done selectively. Some people would not bet on a 1/6 shot, saying they don't bet on such odds, but if such odds are good value, it is a good bet. For example, the biggest bet that i placed in my life was on a 1/6 shot - which happened to be Australia to win the last ashes series against England.

Punters Paradise

I would distinguish between 'domain' knowledge and 'betting’ knowledge, e.g. if I am betting on a football game the 'domain' is football, but to be successful long term I also need knowledge of value/risk/staking/overround etc.

Zonker

I certainly agree there. The mathematical knowledge of the mechanics of betting is the easy part probably.

Punters Paradise

Easy for the mathematically inclined maybe!

The domain knowledge often comes through love of the sport (or sometimes through cold-blooded identification of a potential betting Klondike!) - but the 'betting knowledge' is harder to get. Where did you learn yours - experience obviously, but where else would you say influenced you positively in this regard?

Zonker

It is hard to say, just a general feel for it over time, picking up the experience. Obviously, I have had the hard lessons of losing at times, which tend to show you how not to do things.

Punters Paradise

Any good books that stand out for you - would you be a reader of gambling literature?

Zonker

I must say probably not. Self taught over time probably on how to do things just picking up the odd thing here and there. Most of how I do things just seems like common sense to me. Everyone has their own methods, some of which work and some of which don't - over time, I have learned to do things in a way which works for me.

Punters Paradise

Any individuals/websites etc that have helped, or you would say are useful?

Zonker

Apart from general websites to research the actual bets, there are not really any websites I've used to learn how to bet, and how to do things. I'm quite independent, I would  always listen to advice, but I'm happy to follow my own instincts

Punters Paradise

Ok, moving on a little again, you mentioned earlier that you felt there were more similarities between investment banking and sports betting than many people realise. You have a maths degree. You apply yourself fairly scientifically and dispassionately to this area. Other successful gamblers do the same Is the scientific/analytical mindset a key factor in success do you feel?

Zonker

Very much so, you have to look at it that way. You can't afford to get too emotional - clearly, if you have a last minute goal going against you, it is annoying, but you have to expect that - just as things can go for you in similar circumstances. I heard a phrase which said if you can find the value, the winners take care of themselves.

Punters Paradise

You mention last minute goals – do you ever bet in running?

Zonker

Certainly, the same applies to all betting with the only difference being you have to make decisions much more quickly in-running. I must say that I do not bet in-running a lot, especially with football. Cricket is a more slow-moving game, with better in-running opportunities

Punters Paradise

One of the corner stones of progress in scientific research is the concept of publication and sharing of results and information - the idea being that the individual benefits from the collective. This ‘generosity’ has endured even through the very commercialised technological environment of today. Can pro/serious gamblers learn from this? i.e. should we share more information on the basis of greater progress?

Zonker

Certainly, the only thing that better technology brings, is that the bookmaker can take advantage of this better information also. Everyone else can benefit from sharing of information and results, but you have to try to use it better.

Punters Paradise

Obviously in a limited context - in a closed system increasing everyone’s knowledge doesn't help anyone in relative terms - but assuming that for example readers of a particular forum are a very small subset of the total, should pro-gamblers share ideas more?

Zonker

Well I for one am happy to share ideas, but clearly if you spot what is a superb bet in your opinion, if you tell too many people, the odds fall.

Punters Paradise

Agreed, but I'm thinking more in terms of 'meta' information - e.g. sharing knowledge of the process you go through etc. E.g. you feel corners information is key to predicting 1X2 results, someone else has ideas on bookings info - you talk and you both learn.

Zonker

Again, I think this is fine. Everyone uses different processes, and I don't see a problem is sharing your experience with others.

Clearly, some people will not agree with how you do things and some will but if someone thinks they have an edge, or a way to find an edge, I'm happy to listen If anyone asks me how I go about doing things, I am happy to tell them. Of course, you still have to use your instincts to make the final decisions, you can't really tell people how to do that

Punters Paradise

What I'm driving at is that in my experience/estimation, pro-gamblers don't do this very much, whereas they might mutually benefit - would you perceive this to be the case?

Zonker

For me personally, if someone has a method to win at gambling, for example, on corners as you say, I'll listen to what they say, and then see if I can apply it, but I don't talk to others that often about this. I agree that people could share ideas more often - I certainly don't do it often.

Punters Paradise

Ok Zonker – thanks for the continuing insight – it has been fascinating. Next time we’ll wrap it up with some advice for anyone thinking of going the pro route.

Zonker

Look forward to it!